‘The Big Show’ Oscar Prediction Show and Contest: A Predilection for Prediction

Casey St. Charnez - February 14, 2014

Honey and Lisa and I have been doing this thing for so long that none of us quite remembers exactly how many years it has been. We’re thinking this year probably makes it a dozen, but no one recalls for sure.

I’m referring, of course, to our annual Oscar Predictions event on Honey Harris’ The Big Show” on KBAC. The three of us are set to sit down on Friday, February 28th at 10am to hash it all out once more, just before the Academy Awards air on Sunday, March 2nd.

That’s still a few weeks away, as I write this, and as I always mention this time every year: I HAVE NO EARTHLY IDEA WHO WILL WIN.

That said, that morning we will willfully cast our predictions into the radio ether, hoping for a good showing in the 24 categories we’re covering.

The full ballot is printed below.

Honey moderates, and ventures an opinion of her own here and there. Lisa, using what she hears from Video Library customers, is the vox populi. I do research, trying to handicap the nominees against their probabilities.

Constant readers will recall my column last month in which I bitched my face off about this year’s AMPAS idiocies.

I still say Redford wuz robbed.

But that’s behind us, and we must look to the future, right?

So I’ve been scanning the trades, checking the oddsmakers, looking at the recent awards shows, and notating who’s won what, simply to scope out patterns.

For instance, the Screen Actors Guild gave top kudos to Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) and Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) for Leading roles, and Jared Leto (again, Dallas Buyers Club) and Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) for Supporting. While SAG also gave its Best Cast award to American Hustle, that particular prize should be regarded as a win for the ensemble, and not for individuals. The smart money is therefore on the aforementioned four to take Oscars home.

The Directors Guild went for Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity). Thus, so will I. And the Writers Guild liked Spike Jonze (Her) for Original Screenplay and Billy Ray (Captain Phillips) for Adapted. Me too, then.

As we all know, the most prestigious award is Best Picture. It might as well be called Best Producer. However, this year the Producers Guild vote resulted in an unprecedented tie: For the first time ever, the PGA couldn’t make up its mind between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. Yup—just like when Streisand and Hepburn tied for the 1968 Best Actress Oscar. So this one is a hard bout to call. But I think I’m going with Gravity.

The one influence we all ignore is the ridiculous drunken spectacle that is the Golden Globes. Although the Tina ‘n’ Amy dog-and-pony act was funny this year, making the silly show with watching, it long has seemed to me that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s paltry ninety members can not hold a professional candle to AMPAS’ nearly 6,000 voters. The GGs also hedge their bets by dividing categories into Drama and Comedy/Musical. I ignore them. You should, too.

Now, I could very well change my mind about any or all of these professed choices come time for Honey’s show.

After all, a month ago, the Woody Allen scandal hadn’t broken yet, and Blanchett was the sure thing. Is she still? Will Hollywood punish him by denying her? Personally, I think not, but, as ever, who knows?

Naturally we’ll peruse all the categories, even sound mix (which is recorded on the set) and sound editing (in the studio). Honey might even squeeze enough time to play a nominated song or two.

So please tune in to find out what we’re going to say.

I’m kind of wondering myself.